Breeder's Cup: Main Event

Only a buck 90 down for Friday in real green. Not bad, but definitely not what we want. Today is the 8-handed final table!

The weather conditions at Monmouth make hard fields even more difficult to choose amongst. About the only patterns established Friday (and they should continue today, since the weather's expected to stay the same, maybe a little less rainy) are:

-- Early speed isn't holding up too well (except my best-bet Gottcha Gold did stay strong enough for second and a lot of cashed tickets). So I'll look closely for solid steady late kickers.

-- Not many horses have off-track experience. If they've done well in gook, especially at Monmouth, they're special in my eyes.

-- Class will tell. No favorites won Friday, but these are the best of the best, so there's little difference between 2-1 and 15-1 except in the perception of their rabid supporters and the general public. So value hunting is rewarded.

-- With the balanced fields and off conditions of the track, waiting until the last minute to make final choices is the ONLY way to go. Just don't get shut out at the windows! Sorry I'm not live-blogging to tell you of late inspirations, but...

Brother Brian in Florida (that's middle brother, Brent's youngest and I'm oldest) had the biggest hit Friday. He nailed the Filly/Mare Sprint exacta of Maryfield and Miraculous Miss, which paid $374.80. Don't ask me how the boy did it, I haven't a clue. No he doesn't blog, sorry, you can't go read him instead of me. My best play was going heavy late on Corinthian in the dirt mile, especially pairing him with best-bet Gottcha Gold. Hey, 68, 69, they're close...

Today's order of business:

-- Juvenile Fillies (Race 4): Cannot decide between Indian Blessing and Irish Smoke. Guess I'll go for best value. WINNER: 5-Irish Smoke. DARKHORSE: 12-Grace Anatomy (that's for you, igee-babee!).

-- Juveniles (Race 5): War Pass is the probable favorite, but I was more impressed with Wicked Style and Slew's Tiznow in their last outs. You just never know with the kiddies (2-year-olds)... WINNER: 13-Wicked Style. DARKHORSE: 7-Pyro.

-- Filly/Mare Turf (Race 6): Is unbeaten Nashoba's Key for real? I think so, but I want better value and someone a little more battle-tested. WINNER: 2-Honey Ryder. DARKHORSE: 11-Simply Perfect.

-- Sprint (Race 7): Did I once say I like Gold? Let's try it again ... But beware of Commentator. WINNER: 10-Greg's Gold. DARKHORSE: 7-Idiot Proof.

-- Mile (Race 8): This was probably the hardest race for me to handicap, so many possibilities. Will have to really wait and see what the weather and track are like and how the foreigners are adapting to the conditions. This race will pay huge if I pair the right tandem. I don't like After Market, but I'll give late close looks to Cosmonaut, Kip Deville, Excellent Art, Remarkable News and especially the popular 3-year-old, Nobiz Like Shobiz. WINNER: 6-Trippi's Storm. DARKHORSE: 10-My Typhoon.

-- Distaff (Race 9): Todd Pletcher is the best trainer in the country, but he hasn't had much luck in Breeder's Cup races. That could change today, especially here where he has three good gals going. I'll for sure bet a Pletcher trifecta of his trio (Octave, Indian Vale, Unbridled Belle) and an exacta box of them. If Ginger Punch doesn't spoil the party, this will be fun. WINNER: 11-Unbridled Belle. DARKHORSE: 1-Balance.

-- Turf (Race 10): Foreign invader Dylan Thomas will probably be the biggest favorite of the day, and rightly so. Red Rocks pulled an upset in this race lat year, and history does have a way of repeating ... but not this time. English Channel could help bury Pletcher's jinx, and his rider John R. Velazquez could be the hottest jock today after struggling in Friday's Cup races (but dominating the undercard). I hate to back chalk, but a winner's a winner... WINNER: 7-Dylan Thomas. DARKHORSE: 4-Shamdinan.

-- Classic (Race 11): Any Given Saturday is scary hot this fall. So's Lawyer Ron, the probable favorite and "old man" of the field at age 4. I love Curlin, and his late kick may be perfect for the conditions. Or they might not catch probable pacesetter Hard Spun, a classy colt who I just don't think will hold on with this field. Sorry to those and the other entrants, but I have to stay with Street Sense. He won the Juvenile last year. He won the Kentucky Derby. He's campaigned intelligently this fall and is coming up perfectly for today. If the track doesn't whack the race, I Sense it'll be the Preakness all over again, but with vengeance at the finish line. Or Street Sense will beat Curlin by 5 lengths this time. WINNER: 2-Street Sense. DARKHORSE: 9-Tiago.

"Let's get ready to rumble!" "And down the stretch the come!" What other expressions can I rip off? "And here comes the bunny..."? How about "G'luck all!"...

Breeder's Cup -- Warm-up

I'm very happy with my poker play right now. Learning and improving and building confidence ... and reenforcing that it is very unwise for me to try to do two things at once. But today's not about poker, at least not right now. We'll chat more on it later. Let's get to the IMPORTANT stuff!!!

It's that time of year again!!! The Kentucky Derby is nice, but to a horse racing aficionado like me, Breeder's Cup Day is THE day to test one's skills as the best horses battle the best. To heck with poker; I was playing the ponies and perusing the Racing Form long before I really knew anything about the river, donkeys or Doyle Brunson. Poker will still be there after this weekend; for now...

This year Breeder's Cup Day is expanded to 2 days, with 3 new events today (Friday). I'll get to Saturday's Great Eight races late tonight or tomorrow morning. For now, with the contests on ESPN live this afternoon and easily wagerable at Bodog, other online connections and your friendly neighborhood track, casino or OTB, here's the Sham Sayz on what we want to see happen:

-- Filly and Mare Sprint (Race 8): Miss Macy Sue seems to be the smart horse and offers good odds, but I just don't feel her today. I dislike going with chalk (no value), but my bottom line has always been to pick THE winner; so it's hard to get away from Dream Rush and La Traviata. Brother Brent swears by Wild Gams and Oprah Winney. I think I've got my four-horse exacta and trifecta boxes; just hope they finish in a best-paying order. WINNER: 3-Dream Rush. DARKHORSE: 10-Baroness Thatcher.

-- Juvenile Turf (Race 9): Lots of studying and conversations Thursday evening (I should have been focusing on my poker game, but oh well, there's lots more chances in BBToo!) have switched my thinking on this race. I had loved Cherokee Triangle, but now I have to switch over to the foreign invaders: Achill Island, Strike The Deal and Domestic Fund. Brother Brent is supporting Gio Ponti. Bro's the stats man; I go more by instinct and feel, like on the felt. We thus make a good team, to the detriment of the pay windows. Sorry, bro, mine's gonna beat yours ... again. WINNER: 8-Achill Island. DARKHORSE: 4-Cherokee Triangle.

-- Dirt Mile (Race 10): Can Discreet Cat, so good last year as a 3-year-old and so touted until hurt earlier this year, be beaten now that he's back? I sure hope so! If so, this race is going to pay off fantastic, as there's a lot of evenly matched talent. Problem is, Brother Brent and I agree on this one, and that often spells expensive trouble! Gottcha Gold is a talented speedball at a good price; what's not to like? Even if he does have to worry about the likes of Xchanger, Wanderin Boy, Corinthian, Lewis Michael, the favored Cat ... But ya can't bet them all (like you shouldn't play every poker hand -- but who listens?). I love Gold horses; I love grays; I love the 69 combo (although women are more fun than horses, ya takes whatcha can gets!). I love fattening my bankroll in this race to position myself for Saturday's fun. WINNER: 6-Gottcha Gold (and be sure to exacta box him with 9-Xchanger). DARKHORSE: 3-Wanderin Boy.

Time to check the weather conditions, track biases and early-race tendencies. More laters. And they're off!!!...