I wish I was in Las Vegas this weekend. Caesars Palace, to be exact. It's time for the 2010 NBC Heads-Up Championship, one of my favorite events annually.
Here in St. Louis, I don't get to see much of it when NBC gets around to the broadcast. Sundays are dominated by the local affiliate showing St. Louis Cardinals baseball games. Who cares about those losers??? Gimme my phenoms and flashes from the felt! I'm left waiting for the shows to rebroadcast on CNBC or somewhere. So I expect to be keeping up with the action as it happens this weekend live, via the online poker news reports or NBC's blog.
I'll put observations in my blog this weekend. But I'll put them at the end of a post, and say SPOILER WARNING!, so that folks who want to be kept in the dark and suspense until the tournament airs don't read something they don't want to know.
OK, prediction time! I consider this good practice for the NCAA Brackets I'll be filling out later this month. But in the Heads-Up Championship, anybody can truly beat just about anybody. Thanks to NBC for the event bracket, posted at its website after Thursday night's Pairings Draw Party at Pure Nightclub in Vegas.
I'm doing two brackets, so it's me against me. First, here's the summary of my initial bracket which I posted in several forums I belong to, such as Poker Analysis and Holdem Poker Chat:
"Jiminy Christmas, what matchups! What potential matchups!!!
"Didn't know whether to go with who should win or who I want to win. Who'll play serious or who'll play drunk. Old school or new wave. As usual, decided to go with a mix ... which is when my cute crabs usually run into pocket rockets. Oh well.
"How're these for real first-round matches: Seidel-Seed, Negreanu-J.Mercier, Lederer-Hellmuth, Greenstein-Rousso, Hansen-Raymer and the Duel of the Jennifers (Tilly-Harman)? Wow. The Diamonds Bracket is definitely the "Region of Death." I'd love to see Hellmuth-Obrestad in the second round, Negreanu-Dwan in the third. And one of my predicted semifinals would set the internet afire if it materializes.
"Sham's Final Four: Patrik Antonius vs. Tom Dwan and Doyle Brunson vs. Antonio Esfandiari. Bracket darkhorses: Ted Forrest, Shawn Rice, Annette Obrestad (shoulda been Doyle as that group's darkhorse, I shoulda picked Chris Ferguson to win it, but oh well -- and if Doyle doesn't play the Chrisis the man to win the Hearts) and Jen Harman.
"And the winner is: Antonius over Antonio. But as bad as my picks were last year, those two are probably hexed for good. Good luck all; more in my blog."
That's my starter. But I always liked pairs ... twins ... two at once ... diversity ... you know what I mean ... So I'm doing another bracket right here, right now, my Blog Picks. And I just know I can beat me -- the Forum Picks, dirty mind!
Start in the CLUBS Bracket -- FIRST ROUND: Patrik Antonius over Chris Moneymaker seems good. Eric Baldwin over Lee Wolpert just because. David Williams over Joe Cada because Williams is one of the solid bets who could easily run the table with six wins in three days. Huck Seed over Erik Seidel, gotta go with the defending champ and someone (think it was Daniel Negreanu in his blog picks) noted unlucky Seidel has yet to win a match here. Erick Lindgren over Dan Ramirez, one of the unknown qualifiers I figure. "Elky" Grospellier over Peter Eastgate, a tough matchup. Ted Forrest over Stephen Quinn; although Forrest hasn't been in the news much lately, he like Seed and Chris Ferguson have a tremendous track record here. And Dario Minieri over Jamie Gold in a tossup. SECOND ROUND: Antonius over Baldwin. Williams over Seed, I think David's motivation will be very high especially against the defending champ. Grospellier over Lindgren, largely due to Erick's seeming inactivity in recent months. Forrest over Minieri, because it's Ted's "home." THIRD ROUND: Williams over Antonius, because I have to make some major picks different from Forum Sham. Forrest over Grospellier, I just like Old School best (so boo me). FOURTH ROUND: Williams over Forrest. I think it's David's time.
SPADES bracket -- FIRST ROUND: Phil Ivey over Gavin Smith, depends on how many golf games and other things Ivey has scheduled this weekend, I just think he's made it a project to tear up the major tournament circuit in '10 -- and the Biggies start here. Scotty Nguyen over Richard Edwards, should be easy, and I just noticed how small the Asian delegation enterred this year is, disappointing. Shawn Rice over Joe Hachem, a good tough match. Gabe Kaplan over Johnny Chan, another tough one but Chan never seems inspired. Jason Mercier over Daniel Negreanu, one of the best first-round pairings and the winner's likely to go all the way. Pieter de Korver over Mike Sexton, tough to pick but I'll risk it. Tom Dwan over Phil Gordon, like Ivey "durr" has a goal of being a breakout star on the tournament swing in '10. John Juanda over Phil Laak, another difficult decision that will depend on timing, cards and chip stacks. SECOND ROUND: Ivey over Nguyen. Rice over Kaplan. Mercier over de Korver. Dwan over Juanda. THIRD ROUND: Rice over Ivey, the upset of the event, but I think Phil loses concentration a tad in his second match of Saturday. Mercier over Dwan, another coinflip and another disappointment for those wanting an Ivey-Dwan Quarterfinal Super Showdown. FOURTH ROUND: Mercier over Rice, going with the hottest of two hot new stars.
HEARTS bracket -- (Got a tournament in 13 minutes so I'm going to speed this up; sorry ... more later.) FIRST ROUND: Jason Hougaard over Allen Cunningham, who's another player who seemed inactive in recent months. Eli Elezra over Greg Mueller, one to the experienced guy. Craig Ferguson over Annette Dworski. Dennis Phillips over Kara Scott. Doyle Brunson over Brock Parker, although Parker beats any late sub. Don Cheadle over John-Paul Kelly. Phil Hellmuth over Howard Lederer, a great first-round match. Annette Obrestad over Orel Hershiser. SECOND ROUND: Hougaard over Elezra, one against the experienced guy. Ferguson over Phillips. Brunson over Cheadle. Obrestad over Hellmuth, and won't that be fun to watch! THIRD ROUND: Ferguson over Hougaard. Obrastad over Brunson, with two toughies in one day, the king is "dead", long live the queen. FOURTH ROUND: Ferguson over Obrastad, the old guard still rules.
DIAMONDS bracket -- FIRST ROUND: Barry Greenstein over Vanessa Rousso. Antonio Esfandiari over Sammy Farha. Jennifer Harman over Jennifer Tilly. Mike Matusow over Jerry Yang. William Huntress over Darrin Moon. Andy Bloch over Annie Duke. Paul Wasicka over Andrew Wilson. Greg Raymer over Gus Hansen, one of my upset specials, to cap a very very tough bracket. SECOND ROUND: Esfandiari over Greenstein. Matusow over Harman. Bloch over Huntress. Raymer over Wasicka. THIRD ROUND: Esfandiari over Matusow. Raymer over Bloch. FOURTH ROUND: Raymer over Esfandiari.
SEMIFINALS: Williams over Mercier. Raymer over Ferguson. And does this seem familiar ... FINALS: Williams vs. Raymer -- and this time David Williams wins! (No relation, durn it...)
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